Sterling is making tentative gains in month end currency flows, in particular breaking a key technical level versus euro. GBP/EURO hit a six-week high as traders trimmed excessive short positions built on the back of shockingly weak UK GDP data last week.
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Britain’s economy contracted unexpectedly in the third quarter of this year, squashing hopes of an end to the recession and instead making the current recession the longest on record, official data showed on Friday. The Office for National Statistics’ data will be closely eyed by the Bank of England, which meets on Nov. 4-5 to decide whether to expand its 175 billion pound quantitative easing scheme.
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Sterling fell in Thursday’s trading session as a result of poor UK Sales data and comments made by Bank of England policymaker Paul Tucker that the central bank could extend quantitative easing if necessary.
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In the past few weeks we have seen Sterling talked down and suffer because of the pessimistic outlook for the short-mid term. This negative outlook has been based on a number of factors such as day-to-day data release, possibility of further extensions to policies which are there to stimulate the economy such as Quantitative Easing. But all of this seems to be more speculative rather than ’set in stone’. So until a data release actually happens or a policy is actually extended, it is all speculation by traders as to what is actually going to happen. The pound has suffered over the past few weeks, reaching over a 6 month low against the Euro and nearly a 5 month low against the USD, partly due to the speculation and partly due to policymakers such as Mervyn King, talking down Sterling.
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Last week was a much more positive week for Sterling, as it made gains on the euro and the dollar following nearly a month of continual losses against the major currencies, mainly due to the fact that UK interest rates will stay low and public finances are predicted to deteriorate further. However, on Friday the pound hit a three week high against the dollar extending what had been a dramatic rise on Thursday, and hit a high of 1.6398.
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Sterling reversed the trend of the last few weeks and jumped to a three-week high against the dollar on Thursday after comments the previous day from a Bank of England policymaker that quantitative easing was working effectively.
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Sterling is trading at 3-week highs against the US dollar benefiting from UK jobs data, Bank of England comments and significant USD weakness on the exchanges. Data yesterday showed fewer than expected Britons claimed unemployment benefit and the jobless rate surprisingly held steady.
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Sterling was hit hard again yesterday after the UK government released plans to sell off assets to raise billions of pounds to plug the huge hole left in the UK economy by the global slowdown and also by the significant underperformance of the UK banking sector. Gordon Brown mentioned plans to sell of several tunnels as well as Tote book makers in a plan to raise £16 billion in an effort to plug the huge budget defecit.
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