Sterling fell close to a one month low against the Euro this morning following an increase in risk aversion following on from last weeks news from the middle east and Dubai’s debt problems after the region last week called for a delay in repaying billions of dollars in debt and also off the back of a surprise fall in consumer confidence and highlighting the ongoing weakness and uncertainty that surrounds the UK economy.
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Revised GDP figures were released yesterday and they showed the UK economy contracted less then initially estimated and shrank by 0.3 percent in the third quarter compared with the initial figure of 0.4 percent; this is the smallest contraction within the three month period since June 08. It was in line with expectations but did not show the increase many were hoping for. The UK is still in recession but many feel the fourth quarter figures may be strong, this allowed sterling to make some gains but they were only modest.
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The BoE minutes were released yesterday and they revealed a three way split in their decision to increase the asset buying programme earlier in the month by £25 billion. There are 9 members of the MPC of which 1 voted for an increase of £40 billion, 1 member voted for no increase with the remaining 7 opting for the £25 billion. This has left the door open for further future increases but as the past has shown nothing can be confirmed until their next meeting. A lot will depend on the Q4 GDP figures as an increase and more positive outlook is needed after the Q3 GDP.
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Tuesday morning saw Bank of England policymaker Andrew Sentance support the UK economy and speak of it as being on the way to recovery. This came as we saw annual Consumer Price Index up to 1.5% in October, up from a 5 year low of 1.1% in September. This was on par with consensus, which assists with the BoE’s estimation that the UK will head out of the recession in the 4th quarter.
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Sterling’s recent gains came to an end yesterday following the BoE’s Mervyn Kings comments made in the quarterly inflation report.
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Sterling continued to gain ground against the US dollar this morning but reversed gains against the Euro ahead of Bank of England’s latest quarterly Inflation Report and UK labour market data. Broad US dollar weakness helped the pound retrace some of the losses it suffered yesterday due to the proposed hostile take over of Cadburys by Kraft and also the repeated warning of rating agency Fitch that the UK was in danger of losing its triple-A rating.
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Sterling hit a three-month high against a broadly weaker dollar yesterday, tracking gains in currencies seen as higher risk as equity and commodity markets rallied.
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Sterling dropped some of its gains against the dollar on Friday as disappointing US jobs data left investors more averse to risk and offset the boost to the UK currency from the previous day’s Bank of England decision.
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The week leading up to yesterday’s Bank of England announcement was full of expectation of the MPC increasing quantitative easing resulting in sterling falling dramatically. However immediately after the official announcement to increase the QE programme by a further £25bn sterling actually jumped to a two-week high against the dollar, confounding some analysts’ expectations of a bigger increase. The announcement helped the pound recover losses made in early trade, when traders had been divided on the size of any increase in the asset-buying plan, if the bank extended it at all. The BoE left interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.5%, as expected.
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