IN THE UK
A weak Euro see’s GBP/EUR reaches a 5months high hitting €1.1621
GFK Consumer Confidence at -17 (-19 previously)
Nationwide HPI 1.2%m/m from 0.5% (expected 0.4%)
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Yesterday saw the end to an 18 month technical recession. This came as Quarter 4 GDP figures showed a 0.1% growth. Although this is positive news for the UK, the expectation was that we would see a more wholesome growth of 0.4%. The 0.3% shortfall initially weakened sterling across the board.
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Yesterday was a fairly quiet day for data, however Sterling rose against the Dollar and the Euro as well as a host of other currencies recovering some of it’s recent losses as investors looked ahead to UK gross domestic product data for the fourth quarter due this morning at 09.30hrs.
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At 9.30am tomorrow we will see the release of 4th Quarter GDP figures for the UK. These figures have shown High Market volatility, both positively and negatively in the past, and as expectation is that we will show a positive growth which would see us exit recession, anything negative could weigh heavily on sterling.
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IN THE UK:
Sterling falls broadly after weak UK Sales data
The annual rate of consumer price inflation jumped to 2.9% in December from 1.9% in November
First positive reading for UK manufacturing in two years as 11% of firms report output rose in the last three months
Unemployment figures better than expected falling by only 15,200
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IN THE UK:
Sterling retraces from 5months high to the weeks low of $1.6127.
Public Sector Borrowing reported at £15.7billion – record high for December and the financial year.
Preliminary M4 Money Supply figures fell an unexpected -1.1%m/m (expected 1.0%m/m).
BoE governor Mervyn King describes the UK fiscal health at “undesirably low”.
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Sterling’s gains continued yesterday as we saw it rise to a 5 month high against a broadly weaker euro.
Data released in Germany saw a bigger then expected decline in German investor sentiment which along with flagging market confidence in Greece’s public finances meant the euro was a its lowest since August last year.
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Sterling started off this week as it finished last week, on the up. The pound enjoyed a new four month high against the euro and two month highs against a basket of other currencies as positive UK housing data helped its appeal whilst uneven optimism within the Eurozone reduced the euro’s attractiveness.
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Sterling made gains on Friday against a broadly weaker euro as concerns over the varying economic state of the 16 union members of the Eurozone pressure the single currency.
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Cable came under further pressure yesterday after Import Prices fell flat against a previous reading of 1.6%m/m, Jobless Claims were also worse than forecast at 444K against expectations of 438k (433K previously), and Retail Prices fell -0.3% against expectations of 0.4% (1.8% previously).
With the Retails Sales report the last opportunity for the US to show strength and consecutive growth, weak consumer spending can only lead us to believe the FED will report this somewhat dovishly in their next policy statement later this month.
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